Dow 30 Market Timing
By Kenneth Coleman

[Editor's Note: Instead of Ken's regular column this month, we decided to share some of his recent comments regarding the European Monetary Union (EU) & the Euro.]

Over the next few years, the EU will have about 350 million people using Euros. Over the same period, the dollar will lose that amount of users & with that loss will come dollar devaluation. The loss will not be an official devaluation. It will instead be dictated by market forces. Little can be done to prevent this coming crisis so for those of you who still believe the EU is failing, let's take a reality check.

EU leaders are readying the union for a massive period of growth. Dietrich Von Kyaw, the EU's German ambassador, is part of an exclusive group known as the "EU permanent representatives." The high-powered group, according to the Financial Times, "is reputed to resolve 90 percent of EU decisions before they even reach ministers."

It's Von Kyaw's view that the "EU must prepare for a time when it embraces the whole of the continent including perhaps Turkey & the Ukraine... the EU has felt compelled to offer a perspective of entry for even Albania."

This statement validates what I have been saying for several years. Much of Eastern & Western Europe will eventually join the EU. Those nations that procrastinate will be left out of the high-powered decision making process.

The United Kingdom may one day find itself in this predicament. If U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair waits too much longer to call for an EU election, his nation may wind up in the second tier. With or without the U.K., the EU will move to the next level if Von Kyaw has anything to say about it.

Von Kyaw expects the EU to eventually mushroom to more than 30 countries. These countries would be encouraged to join the EU in stages. The first stage countries would come aboard before 2004. The others before 2020. According to Von Kyaw, this strategy would avoid risk & "imperial overstretch" & a "tendency toward withering away." If this happens, the EU will surpass the U.S. as the number one global economic power. This is one thing U.S. citizens must learn. The growing monetary & economic union in Europe is antithesis to our welfare. Much of the Federal Reserve Bank's current problems are generated indirectly more by Euroland than by our economy.

[Editor's Note: Ken also had some very interesting things to say about the Y2K problem -- I found them intriguing & include them here.]

For some time I have had a hunch the Y2K computer problem would prove more beneficial to this country than harmful. Y2K has spurned corporate & consumer spending. In many areas of the country, electric generators are in short supply. Earlier this year, certain gold coins were in short supply. Retail stores catering to outdoor & survival gear are still racking up record sales. And then there was the $200 billion that was spent in the government & private sectors to ensure Y2K compliance. All these factors, as well as others related to computer spending, have had an extremely positive effect on the economy.

The good news is this positive effect will not end soon. According to estimates coming from Europe, up to 65% of second & third world na-tions will fail to meet Y2K compliance standards. Many of these nations' banks will be suspect. If this proves true, a huge amount of foreign money would flee to the United States seeking safe haven.

The safe haven money (if it materializes) will bail this nation out later this year. The bias would be for interest rates to move lower & the stock market

to move higher. However, the price our nation must pay for this foreign largess is increased price pressures.

[Editor's Note: Ken also had some interesting things to say about oil.]

The Special Report titled "The Coming Oil Shock" I published in 1998 that's due to hit in 2000 is right on target. The Financial Times recently published an article that warns of higher oil prices based on continued adherence to oil cartel quotas & a winter shortfall of supple versus demand. The shock will be caused by currency devaluation & Y2K problems in second & third world oil producing nations (those that supply the bulk of our imported oil). If this proves true, the disruption in oil supply will put additional pressure on the dollar & thus prices. If this were a normal business cycle, the Fed would have no problem in simply raising interest rates to wring out the excess liquidity putting pressure on prices.

[Editor's note: Ken Coleman is the country's only "Investment Tracker." He tracks all the money flowing into & out of the total investment spectrum of G7 nations. Due to his unprecedented timing predictions using money flow analysis, he, like Larry Oakley, is in Who's Who in the World in Finance & Industry. He is editor of Kenneth Coleman's Investment Tracker newsletter. Call him at 760-720-0107 or call the publisher at 800-380-2891.]

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